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Twitter – Building a Team First – Good Idea or Not?
7/6/2011 edit
By PJLouis
Tags: Twitter, wireless, telecom, social media, IPO, ghost users

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304803104576428020830361278.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

 

Well, it is about time; a company that is not rushing to go IPO. Wow, who is Twitter’s financial advisor. I distrust analysts who tout high valuations based on the “sexy” investment story and the “cool factor”. Throughout the 1990s and the early 2000s, I heard enough blarney to last a lifetime. What amazed me more than anything during those years, is how little analysts actually focused on the business plan, the execution plan, execution feasibility, and revenue model. Today, investors are wiser and now ask those questions to the horror of analysts.


Many folks have been questioning how Twitter was going to rationally support the high valuations most analysts have been espousing. Valuation exercises are unusual things. You can establish a corporate valuation based on financials – current and past data. You can establish a corporate evaluation based on past and current data coupled with projections about the future. This latter method is key to establishing a strategic based valuation rather than a financially based valuation.


Up until now, I simply thought all of the talk about multi-billion dollar valuations of Twitter was the usual analyst hype one normally hears prior to an IPO. Up until now, analysts have been hyping the number of users there are throughout the world. The numbers are impressive but the company has generated no revenue of significance (i.e., advertising revenue) to warrant a multi-billion dollar valuation. However, if the talk about Twitter trying to build a real grown-up and experienced management team is true, then I may be able to believe in the hype about a multi-billion dollar valuation.


I have not seen the business plan, the execution plan, execution feasibility, and revenue model. Therefore, my hope is that a company that focuses on developing competent management actually understands that it needs to understand or modify those things on my list. It is a hope and not a certainty.

Bottom line it appears Twitter is taking the appropriate steps to building a solid management team.  The management team will be expected to develop and execute a revenue model that will generate significant ad based revenues within no more than 6 Quarters of their arrival.

Passion from the founders is nice but it is never going to be enough. 

Reports are that only 6% of the U.S. Population is on twitter.  The majority of twitter activities are ghost users (automated feed tools).   So, even if twitter comes up with a more useful ad model, who actual sees the site?

gdt gdt
7/7/2011 edit
You just gave a good reason why the company is looking to build an experienced management team.  An experienced team stands a better chance of building a workable revenue model than an inexperienced team.
PJLouis PJLouis
7/7/2011
Just bear in mind, even though there are so many ghost users; they are still users.  People and companies are still connected to Twitter.  Does it matter that there are so many ghost users? 
 the answer is obviously: NO.

Bottom line; they have the support and may soon have a grown up management team.
PJLouis PJLouis
7/7/2011
ghosts user are not eyeballs ... if a bot tweets and no one reads it, does it have value? 


gdt gdt
7/8/2011
Yes it does have value.  The reality is that someone or something is generating the tweet.  It kind of reminds me of junk mail and cold calling; a 6% take rate over a 1000 people is much nicer than a 6% take rate over 10 users.  A 6% take rate over 300 Million people in the USA is pretty darn impressive.

It is about activity and how search tools treat the activity.  Twitter comes up pretty often.

Twitter has caught the global attention of individuals, charities, celebrities, and Fortune 500 companies.  That is pretty impressive.

If the company hires the right team, it will do well.
PJLouis PJLouis
7/8/2011