http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576373860513481364.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_RightMostPopular

There are a few times in an industry’s history that you can point to an event and say “that is a turning point in that industry”. Well, Apple’s and Google’s announcements on their new messaging applications is one of those moments in the telecom business.

As a rule, changes in infrastructure businesses like the telecommunications industry take enormous amounts of time; on the order of years, to completely take hold. The telecom network of networks is large, contains massive amounts of equipment, and is capital intensive. Big complex systems like telecom networks take time to change. Despite the fact that SMS growth was only 8.7% over last year, you can attribute it to two things – a shift to instant messaging by the heaviest users (teen agers) and segment maturation.

It will likely take no more than 5 years; my best guesstimate, before we see adverse revenue impacts. This guess is based on past trends with services and technologies like the transition from TDM to common channel, the transition of analog landline to digital landline telephony, the growth of the Internet, introduction of VoIP, introduction of analog cellular, digital cellular, wireless handset transition to smart handsets, web surfing, and online media. As software has become more complex, it has more become embedded in every aspect of telecom and infocom systems. Because the telecom and infocom network are now almost entirely software driven new services and technologies are being deployed in short cycles that range from months to 2 years. This does not give carriers like Verizon and AT&T a lot of time to ramp up and prepare for change.

Keep in mind, that a carrier the size of AT&T and Verizon cannot simply snap its fingers and say we will launch a new service quickly. Service launches take time and require careful planning. In other words, saying Verizon and AT&T need to drop SMS and launch IM is “easier said than done”. The realities of running a telecom operation are: everything takes time and technology changes requires large volumes of capital.

If I were the big carriers, I would start planning now for change. Change takes time and time is running out.

My suggestion to the carriers for now is: drastically lower your prices so that you keep current customers from bolting to the free IM service being provided by your up and coming competitors.