http://www.businessinsider.com/research-in-motion-will-be-dead-by-2013-2011-8

I wish I could take credit for saying RIM will be finished as a company by 2013 but I was not. Eric Jackson of Ironfire Capital stated that he believes RIM will be finished as an independent company by the end of the first quarter of 2013 unless it turns itself around in 2012.

Bottom line is that RIM needs to come up with a huge game changing handset.

I agree with Eric Jackson.

Jackson’s comments make sense. Rim had announced it would be launching three new handsets by the end of August 2011. Unless RIM’s brand new handsets set the world on fire, we will be looking at the rapid disappearance of this Canadian company.

Here is the scary thing about the new handsets; many industry pundits have yet to rave about them. I gave the company credit for taking correct steps. I had said:

“The NFC is a good add for mobile wallet applications. Having a slide out QWERTY keyboard is good for many people and is a good idea; it might go a long way from losing current long time users. Having a TUI only handset is also a good idea for new users of the Blackberry.”

The fact is that the above features are really not a whole lot of neat and new features for the handset world. I was trying to give RIM some credit for trying. I have been pinged for being too generous.

For the Canadians; I am trying to be hopeful. However, the truth is if the new RIM handsets fail to slow down the rate of subscriber losses; effectively holding the line, we will be looking at RIM shutting its doors as an independent company. The RIM board needs to be prepared to look for a buyer.

The best test for a handset’s success is in its sales figures. If sales are lackluster, in comparison to competitors’ handsets, then RIM is done. Worse still, if RIM really does launch the handset at the end of summer and the sales are lackluster, talk of a RIM acquisition may begin before 2011 is even over. Now if RIM decides to do a holiday launch or re-promote summer-launched handsets during the holiday, and the holiday sales are abysmal, RIM will be looking for acquirers before the year is over.

Either way, the new handsets are the key to RIM’s survival.  However, long lasting change wil not tak place until there are changes in top management and corporate culture.